Daily Fantasy Baseball - Basic Strategy

Daily Fantasy Baseball contests are a great test of skill, as the playing field is completely leveled each day, and you only need to handicap a single game and match-up for each of your players. You simply figure out which players will put up the most Fantasy Baseball points today and use your salary cap as effectively as possible to get those players on your team. It sounds pretty simple but there are tons of things to consider when putting together a competitive daily fantasy baseball team. I will try to cover some of the basics here. I also have a previous post on fantasy basketball strategy that covers similar ideas.

In Real Estate there is a saying called Location/Location/Location. In the Fantasy Baseball Contests on FantasySportsLive, as well as in real Baseball in general the saying should go Pitching/Pitching/Pitching. Pitching is as important in daily Fantasy Baseball as location is in Real Estate. A daily fantasy team is basically a baseball team you put together for a single game. If you need to win a single game what do you do? You send your ace pitcher to the mound. In real baseball the starting pitcher has a lot to do with winning a game. If your starter throws a shutout, you will need very little hitting to win. If your starter gets shelled and sent to the bench in the third inning, it is unlikely you will get enough hitting to overcome this. Pitching counts for about 1/2 of your chances of winning, and as such counts for about 1/2 of your team's fantasy score. Your choice of starting pitcher is as important as it gets.

Ranking Cap Games

For a ranking cap game in fantasy baseball you will spend 10x the average fantasy points scored per game for that player. A pitcher who costs 220 points puts up 22 points on average this season. For pitching a minimum cap value of 140 is used, and a maximum cap value of 250 is used. Selecting a stud pitcher with a 250 point value will leave you very little for your offensive players while selecting a 140 point cap pitcher will leave you quite a bankroll for your position players. Position players have a maximum of 45 and a minimum of 10 points for their caps.

Selecting a Pitcher

I can't emphasize enough that your fantasy baseball team needs to be built around a solid starter who will put up numbers in today's game. In general this happens when a good pitcher faces a poor offensive team. Being at home helps as well. There is still more to consider, like the 10 point bonus for a win. A pitcher getting a win will have pitched at least 5 innings and should score in the 20+ range in general. So you really want a pitcher who is likely to get the win. Luckily there are people very concerned with who will get the win. That is the betting public. If you visit an online sports book or even Yahoo, you can find the odds for the day's baseball games. The starting pitchers on the teams that are most heavily favored to win their game are your best bet. You should try to go with one of the top 5 for the day. Once you know which pitchers are most favored to get a win, you then try to find the best value against the cap. Since the cap is based on average score for the season, and the betting lines are based on the single game to be played, you can take advantage of any differences that appear by doing this. Hopefully you will identify a bargain pitcher with a cap value below 200, leaving you some room for your position players.

Position Players

The thought process for position players is different, but similar in some ways. You will not have a betting line to look at here to determine how your player will do. However, you do know who your player will be batting against to start the game. Since pitching is so important, it is a good idea to know who you will be up against, and who will be giving up more fantasy points than others. For this ERA is a great guideline. You review the ERAs for the starting pitchers, and find the worst and the best pitchers based on ERA for today's games. In general you will want to draft position players who are playing against the pitchers with the highest ERAs, and avoid drafting players who will be up against pitchers with lowest ERAs. You also probably want to avoid players going against the pitcher that you have on your fantasy team for the same reason. The starting pitcher is the most important factor in determining your starting position players, but several other factors are in play as well if you want to dig deeper.

1) Streaks
Hot players who have been putting up big numbers over the last couple of weeks are better than cold players.

2) Home Field
Players in general play a bit better at home than on the road. Home players will not bat in the bottom of the 9th on average 1/2 of the time. You are loosing about 1/18th of your plate appearances at home. You are actually better of taking position players on the road, unless they are simply poor road performers.

3) Left/Right Match-ups
Is your position player a switch hitter? If so what side are they more productive on? If not a switch hitter what handed pitchers is your player most productive against? Don't start players who struggle against certain handed pitchers when facing those same pitchers.

4) Cap Values
High cap value players are riskier than low cap value players even though they put up higher numbers in general. If you spend 40 points on a player they need to put up 4 points for you to "break even" on the selection, while a 20 point player only needs 2 points. There is more upside and less downside with low cap value players.

5) New Starters
Utility players who do a lot of filling in early in the season, and get promoted to starters later on are usually a good value. Their rank cap value will be depressed by the many partial games played earlier in the season.

Salary Cap Games

While ranking cap values are based on performance, salary cap games are based on pay. If pay was equal to performance in Baseball we would have identical systems. Fortunately that is not the case. The salaries for starting pitchers is their 2008 salary divided by 32 (average number of starts). For position players it is per game salary for 2008. 150k is the minimum salary for a pitcher, 420k is the maximum. Position players use a minimum of 10k and do not have a maximum. What is nice about the salary cap, is the values do not change during the year. For Salary Cap games you will go through the same though process as above, and will end up selecting a rookie or young underpaid pitcher with the minimum, or close to the minimum salary. The top paid pitchers are not enough better than these types of pitchers to justify blowing most of your cap on them. Once you find the best cheap pitcher available, you draft your position players. You will use the same thought process as above, except you will also want to tend to pick players from the top of the list (sorted by rank cap value). If a player with a 10k cap is at the top of the list, you simply take them. You will blow your cap on a couple of key performers after gobbling up all of the bargains.

No Cap Contests

For these you have no salary constraints. You consider the items above and select whoever you think will put up the most fantasy points for each position. Since the lists are sorted by ranking cap value you are best off selecting from at the top or near the top of the list for each position.

These are my initial thoughts on the subject. I did not try to cover everything, just some basics. Good luck in the Fantasy Baseball contests on FSL.

Daily Fantasy Hockey - Basic Strategy

There are not too many websites running Daily Fantasy Hockey Contests out there. This post will cover some of the basic strategy considerations for the Fantasy Hockey Contests on Fantasy Sports Live. First off, like all other daily fantasy sports, daily fantasy hockey requires a pretty good knowledge of the sport and the match-ups for the day. Just like any other sport you should be drafting players that are facing weak competition or weak defenses. You also want to draft players that are "Hot" and have been putting up solid fantasy numbers over the past few games. On these points Fantasy Hockey is really no different than the other fantasy sports offered at FantasySportsLive.com

Where Fantasy Hockey gets unique is in some of the scoring rules. The two most important are listed below.

1) Goalie Scores 20 points for a win
While goalies in general do not score much more fantasy points than the top skaters, they do get a big 20 point bonus for a win. So it is pretty important to have a goalie on your team that will get the win. This is similar to Fantasy Baseball where the pitcher gets a bonus for the win. However, with Fantasy Hockey it is not always obvious who the starter will be for the game. So the key strategy is that you want a goalie that is likely to get the win and even more important is very likely to start. For the likely winner, you can check the online sportsbooks to find what teams are heavily favored. For the likely starter this is a bit tougher. Obviously teams who rarely rotate goalies are safer than teams with two strong goalies. Sometimes you will just need to do some research and find out who the planned starter is for the day. The bottom line is that the 20 points are going to be important to your fantasy teams success so choose your goalie wisely, and don't be afraid to spend a few bucks here.

2) +/- Statistics Count 5 points
This is a very unique scoring rule for Hockey. If your player is one the ice when their team scores you get 5 points, if they are on the ice when their opponent scores, you lose 5 points. So you obviously want players who do well in +/-. Many players in general do well on +/-, but that is reflected in their cap value. What you really want to know is how well will they do in the next game on +/-. Here is where you will want to have players from the day's winning teams. Since the winning team scored more goals than the loser, the winning team will have more "plus" stats than "minus" stats in general. You can again consult an online sportsbook to see who the most heavily favored teams are, and in general draft players from those teams, and not from teams expected to lose. Don't make the mistake of drafting a good fantasy hockey skater, who is facing a tough match-up and whose team will likely lose. Their personal stats may not be able to overcome the minus stats that may come.

Daily Fantasy Basketball - Basic Strategy

I got a little tired of just using this space to provide basic updates about FSL, so we will try to get some strategy and other important notes and topics up here more often. To start, I want to cover some very basic strategy concerns for Daily Fantasy Basketball Contests. I will break down the strategy based on the draft method for the contest, and will keep things as generic as possible.

Ranking Cap Contests

These are as tough as they get. The ranking cap for each player is set as the average fantasy points scored per game for that player. If you blindly selected a fantasy team using all of a 200pt cap, your team would on average score 200 fantasy points that day. To win these contests you need to pick a team that will score above average (above 200pts). Now to get above 200pts, the obvious thing to do is pick the biggest fantasy point scorers like Lebron James, and Kobe Bryant who average 40+ fantasy points per game and put them on your team. Not so fast. You want to pick players who you think will score more than their rank cap value in that day's game. You should only take Lebron or Kobe if you think they will put up more points than their cap value. Since there cap value is high, they need to put up a bunch of points just for you to "break even" on them. So the big question is how do you figure out who will out score their fantasy cap value in a given game. There are several things to look for here.

1) The Matchup
What team your player is playing, and how well the opponent defends fantasy points is huge. Also home field advantage is important. You should try to select players who are up against poor defenses, and are playing at home when possible.

2) The Streak
Players who are hot tend to stay hot, and those that are cold tend to stay cold with all else being equal. Try to select players that have been playing well over the last few weeks to a month. Select players that have been consistently beating their rank cap value over the last several games, and plan on them continuing to do so.

3) The Playing Time
Players who were bench warmers for most of the season, but now are starters or have their minutes way-up are solid selections. Their average fantasy points per game will be depressed by the lack of playing time earlier in the season, making it easier for them to exceed their cap value now.

4) The Cap Value
Players who have large cap values are more risky than players with small cap values. The downside is much larger. Let’s say you picked up somebody with a value of 30 pts, and for some reason they do not play, or have a very bad game. You could end up 30 pts below their average score. Now the same situation for a player with a value of 12 pts. If they do not play, you are only 12 pts shy of the average total. Players with small cap values have more upside potential than downside risk. Players with high cap values have more downside risk than upside potential.

5) The Injuries
Make sure your player is in good health prior to drafting. Injuries are noted in the draft screen. Do not draft questionable players, and be careful when selecting probable players. Keep in mind that the average points scored was done when the player was healthy in most cases.

Salary Cap Contests

For this draft version, you pay the actual cash salary for the player for that game. Since the NBA salary structure greatly favors the veterans you end up with a bunch of overpriced veterans and under priced rookies with this cap method. In general, you will want to try to figure out who the top fantasy scorers will be that day regardless of the cap value. Put the top 2-3 scorers on your team. This may cost a bunch, but don’t worry. There will be some obvious under priced players in the pool. Chris Paul, Kevin Martin, and many others young players are way under priced. You will need to put 3-4 of the obviously under priced players on your team. After putting the projected high scorers, and the vastly under priced players on your team, you just find the best value you can get for the last position or two you need to fill. These contest will not be decided by the obviously under priced players that everyone will have. They will be decided by who can better map out the top scorers that day, and by who can plug in the last one or two spots on the roster the best.

No Cap Contests

No Cap contests allow you to draft any team that you want without any cap restrictions. Players are sorted in the pool by their ranking cap values. The players most likely to score the most points on average are listed at the top. In general, you will want to pick your fantasy team from the top of the draft pool. Your edge is found when you can identify players farther down on the list that will outscore the top players. Since most will be picking from near the top of the list, if you can find the one or two players down further who will score more you can get an edge. Also you pretty much have to pick the top fantasy scorers like Lebron or Kobe. Even if they are facing an unfavorable match-up, it is still likely they will outscore the others on the list.

Freerolls on Fantasy Sports Live

We currently do not offer pure freerolls on FSL. We do this for a couple of reasons. First, we use the funding method from an initial deposit to verify account information. Since there are a handful of jurisdictions in the US and Canada where we should not be accepting customers (due to local laws), we feel that we must do some level of checking of the accuracy of the account information, prior to allowing participation in our Fantasy Sports Contests. If we did no verification of account information, it would be too easy to open accounts from jurisdictions where local laws prohibited these types of contests, and we may expose ourselves to potential legal issues. Secondly, we offer an Instant Deposit Bonus of $10 for a $100 deposit for all new customers, and higher amounts are available if you use a valid bonus code or click through an FSL ad offering a bonus (Maximum bonus amounts require a $200 minimum initial deposit when using a bonus code). With the instant deposit bonus, you can freeroll our contests before ever using your own money.

Freeroll Strategy on FSL
So now I will give you a huge tip on how to freeroll our contests, even though we currently do not offer pure freerolls. First make a $100 initial deposit, and get the $10 in promo cash (or more with a bonus code). Use the $10 in promo money to enter (10) of out $1 launch special contests. These contests pay 1/2 of the field, and return at least 100% of the entry fees in prizes. After you enter the (10) $1 contests, you will have cleared your promo balance and can cash out your initial deposit in full (sounds free so far right?). After you have run the (10) launch special contests, on average you will be left with $10 or more in your account (depending on the number and size of overlays in those contests). Use those funds to continue to enter the launch special contests. Statistically, you should be able to do this for several months without going broke, and you may even build up some funds to try the larger fee contests.

We may not currently offer freerolls, but it is hard to tell the difference if you use the strategy outlined above, so give it a try if you would like to "freeroll" our contests. In the future we may offer pure freerolls, but you would need an account that had been funded with an initial deposit to qualify, even though the entry would be free.

The Importance of Pitching

When your home team really needs a win what do you do? You send your ace to the mound. Having the best possible starting pitcher on the mound gives any team their best chance of winning an important game. This is just as true for fantasy baseball as for real baseball. Pitching is the key. If your selected starting pitcher does not get the win, you will not get the 10 points that other winning pitchers will get. You need to select a pitcher that will at a minimum get the win, or it will be next to impossible to win your fantasy contest. With pitchers unique ability to put up huge positive and huge negative fantasy scores, their performance is key for your fantasy team. Pick the best starting pitcher possible every time, and don't worry about salary. Salary cap money towards a winning pitcher is always money well spent.

First FSL Strategy Post

OK, now for the good stuff. This one is pretty simple. A great way to start making profits on FantasySportsLive.com is to look for situations like this.

See that $10 contest at the top? That's got $50 in entry fees, and will pay the top 3 a total of $90. This is called an overlay. If you were to jump in for $10, there would still be a 50% overlay. You would need to be pretty bad at this to lose long-term in contests with this much free money. You can also see ID=26 running with just two entries. In that one both players automatically won, and were just fighting it out for the 1st place prize. A third player would have made things a bit more interesting.

As we ramp this site up, you will probably see lots of this over the next few weeks. Check back ten or so minutes before the start of contests, and grab yourself some free money!