Thursday, November 12, 2009

Week 10 Fantasy Football Player Projections

Below I have ranked fantasy football players for week 10 2009 based on their projected fantasy football scores. Scoring is based on the fantasy football scoring system used at FantasySportsLive.com. Please see the rules tab here for the Fantasy Sports Live scoring system, but it is similar to most fantasy football scoring systems. These fantasy football player projections are based on a statistical forecast approach that uses strength of schedule to determine a players underlying weekly fantasy score run rate, which is then adjusted for the strength of this week's opponent to get a week 10 fantasy scoring projection. More forecasting factors can be applied, but I want to see how accurate this method is before I add more complexity. If you would like to use these projections to build a fantasy football team for week 10 at Fantasy Sports Live, try to build the highest projected scoring team possible that fits under the salary cap value. Keep in mind that there will always be variance around the projected score, but if your projected score is 125+, and a blindly picked projected score in a 950 pt cap league would be 95, you should be able to generate a nice advantage. Suggested top selections against the player cap value are shown in red. No adjustments for injuries or chances of not starting have been made so keep that in mind. Also, I am showing all players for this week. Players from Thursday and Monday's games will not be draftable at FSL.

Week 10 Fantasy Quarterback Projections
29.2 Brett Favre
27.1 Drew Brees
25.2 Aaron Rodgers
23.6 Kurt Warner
21.8 Tony Romo
21.6 Mark Sanchez
20.6 Trent Edwards
20.5 Alex Smith
19.8 Jay Cutler
19.3 Joe Flacco
19.3 Philip Rivers
19.1 Matt Hasselbeck
18.5 Matthew Stafford
18.2 Ben Roethlisberger
17.7 Chad Henne
17.5 Donovan McNabb
17.4 Carson Palmer
17.4 Matt Ryan
16.5 Peyton Manning
16 Josh Freeman
14.5 Matt Cassel
14.2 Ryan Fitzpatrick
13.4 Tom Brady

Week 10 Fantasy Wide Receiver Projections
15 Vincent Jackson
13.9 Larry Fitzgerald
12.9 Miles Austin
12.9 Marques Colston
11.4 Braylon Edwards
11.1 Sidney Rice
11 Chad Ochocinco
10.6 Roddy White
10.5 Hines Ward
10.5 Donald Driver
10.4 Reggie Wayne
10.3 Wes Welker
9.9 Lee Evans
9.7 Randy Moss
9.4 Nate Burleson
9.4 Jerricho Cotchery
9 Derrick Mason
8.9 Steve Breaston
8.8 DeSean Jackson
8.6 Percy Harvin
8.4 Devin Hester
8.3 Dwayne Bowe
8 Calvin Johnson
7.9 Santonio Holmes
7.7 T.J. Houshmandzadeh
7.6 Greg Jennings
7.5 Bernard Berrian
7.5 Mike Wallace
7.4 Steve Smith

Week 10 Fantasy Running Back Projections
34.6 Chris Johnson
29.1 Ray Rice
19 Adrian Peterson
18.7 Michael Turner
18 Ronnie Brown
18 Ricky Williams
17.7 Frank Gore
16.5 Steven Jackson
16.4 Pierre Thomas
15.7 Maurice Jones-Drew
15.6 DeAngelo Williams
14.1 Willis McGahee
12.1 Thomas Jones
11.1 Matt Forte
9.7 Reggie Bush
9.6 Joseph Addai
9.4 Tim Hightower
8.9 Cedric Benson
8.8 Ryan Grant
8.5 Brian Westbrook
8.2 Carnell Williams
8.2 Jonathan Stewart
8.2 Julius Jones
8 Correll Buckhalter
7.9 Kevin Smith
7.8 Justin Fargas
7.7 Knowshon Moreno
7.7 Fred Jackson
7.6 Marion Barber
7.5 LeSean McCoy
7.5 Rashard Mendenhall

Week 10 Fantasy Tight End Projections
16.6 Vernon Davis 14.5 Visanthe Shiancoe 14.1 Kellen Winslow 11.9 Greg Olsen 10.3 Heath Miller 10.1 Dallas Clark 11 Brent Celek 10.9 Antonio Gates 10.3 Jeremy Shockey 10.4 Tony Gonzalez 8.2 John Carlson 8.6 Zach Miller 7.9 Ben Patrick 7.6 Dustin Keller 7.2 Benjamin Watson 7.2 Dante Rosario 7.1 Todd Heap 6.2 Chris Cooley 5.8 Spencer Havner 6.4 Jason Witten 5.4 Daniel Fells 5.6 Shawn Nelson 5.2 Brandon Pettigrew 5 Jeff King 5.7 Joey Haynos 4.4 Sean Ryan 4.3 Tony Scheffler 3.5 Marcedes Lewis 3.5 Kellen Davis 3.8 Will Heller 3.6 Robert Royal 3.4 Anthony Fasano

Week 10 Fantasy Kicker Projections
12.3 Ryan Longwell 11.6 David Akers 8.6 Sebastian Janikowski 8.4 Stephen Gostkowski 8.2 Dan Carpenter 8.1 Jay Feely 7.7 Rian Lindell 7.6 Steven Hauschka 7.6 John Carney 7.4 Ryan Succop 7.4 Mason Crosby 7.3 Robbie Gould 7.3 Matt Prater 7.2 Neil Rackers 6.8 Matt Stover 6.7 Nate Kaeding 6.7 Rob Bironas 6.6 Jason Hanson 6.5 Olindo Mare 6.3 Nick Folk 6.3 Joe Nedney 6 Connor Barth 5.5 Phil Dawson 5.2 Jason Elam 4.9 Shaun Suisham 4.8 John Kasay

Week 10 Fantasy Defense Projections

21.9 Denver Broncos 17.2 Minnesota Vikings 17.2 New Orleans Saints 16.9 Baltimore Ravens 14.2 Atlanta Falcons 9.9 Buffalo Bills 9.4 Cincinnati Bengals 8.7 New York Jets 8.7 Arizona Cardinals 8.3 Washington Redskins 8.1 Miami Dolphins 7.9 Pittsburgh Steelers 7.8 Seattle Seahawks 7.7 San Francisco 49ers 6.8 Oakland Raiders 6.6 Dallas Cowboys 6.5 Chicago Bears 5.6 Tennessee Titans 5.1 Philadelphia Eagles 5.1 Kansas City Chiefs 4.6 Carolina Panthers 4 Jacksonville Jaguars 3.5 San Diego Chargers 2.9 Green Bay Packers 2.6 New England Patriots 2.4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.7 Cleveland Browns 1.3 Indianapolis Colts 0.2 Detroit Lions -0.9 St. Louis Rams

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