Friday, October 14, 2011

Week 6 Fantasy Football Player Projections

I will be providing weekly fantasy football player projections here at the Fantasy Sports Live blog for the rest of the season based on the following methodology.

Methodology

1) Only statistics from the 2011 NFL season are used.  Player and team fantasy performance from previous years is completely ignored.  Season to season changes in the composition of the NFL teams is too great, making last years performance irrelevant to this years projections.

2) Each fantasy football statistical category that is scored at Fantasy Sports Live is projected individually. For a fantasy football player's projection, I sum each scored statistical category projection multiplied by the fantasy point scoring for that category at FSL.  This leads to vastly more accurate projections.  For example, a TE that scores a lot of TDs, but does not get many yards is better matched-up against defenses that give up a lot of TDs and few receiving yards.  Simply taking a players average fantasy points in total, against a defenses fantasy strength in total does not reveal all the important details of the match-up.

3) I start with the averages at each scored statistical category for each player, and then adjust them based on strength of schedule for each category based on the defenses faced so far this year.

4) To further improve accuracy, I also adjust defensive strength at each statistical category based on the offensive strength of schedule for the defense.  This extra step is not taken by most projections, and is very important based on the limited 16 game NFL schedule.  At about the 20 game point this adjustment is not really necessary, but you never get to that point during the NFL season.  For example the top defense in the league, may actually be the best, or may be statistically the best based on facing weak offenses so far this year.

5) Making the adjustments to average performance in (3) and (4) above gets you to the players underlying strength at each statistical category.  This is the statistics that the player would put up on average, long-term against a perfectly average defensive match-up.

6) The players underlying statistical strength is then adjusted maced on the strength of this weeks match-up.  The defensive strength of the match-up is adjusted for offensive schedule strength as in (4) above.  I multiply the modified defensive strength at each statistical category, by the underlying strength of the player at each statistical category to get a projection at each category which is used to project the players total fantasy points for their next game.

Notes

1) No adjustments are made for home/away, or for player injuries.  Home players tend to score higher than away players, and healthy players tend to score higher than injured players.  When building a fantasy football team based on these projections, and facing a difficult decision, you should tend to choose the player playing at home, and players with out injuries when ever possible.  You should also completely avoid players who are listed as questionable, doubtful, Out, or IR in the Fantasy Sports Live draft screen.

2) Projections are most accurate for players with the most games played.  Projections for players with few games played can be inaccurate.  For example this week there are very high projection for Mile Austin and Dez Bryant at WR.  This is because they had played a limited number of games and did very well in them.  Be aware that these projections are probably not very accurate due to the small sample size.

3) All projections are generated automatically, and are not adjusted through human intervention.  Even if some of them do not look right, I leave them in place.

4) These projections are valid at Fantasy Sports Live only, based on our unique scoring system.  The way we score kickers and defenses is significantly different than elsewhere.  There are also small differences at the other positions.

Week 6 Fantasy Quarterback (QB) Projections

 Tony Romo  43.7
 Eli Manning  35.5
 Mark Sanchez  28.3
 Drew Brees  26.7
 Aaron Rodgers  26
 Cam Newton  25.3
 Michael Vick  24.5
 Matthew Stafford  24.4
 Donovan McNabb  24.3
 Colt McCoy  22.3
 Matt Schaub  21.8
 Matt Ryan  18.7
 Ben Roethlisberger  18.5
 Curtis Painter  17.6
 Joe Flacco  17.1
 Josh Freeman  16.7
 Jon Kitna  16.6
 Sam Bradford  15.1
 Tarvaris Jackson  15.1
 Ryan Fitzpatrick  14.9
 Andy Dalton  14.2
 Tom Brady  14
 Jason Campbell  13.9
 Rex Grossman  12.8

Week 6 Fantasy Wide Receiver (WR) Projections


 Miles Austin  48.3
 Dez Bryant  24
 Calvin Johnson  19.2
 Hakeem Nicks  15.1
 Pierre Garcon  15.1
 Mike Wallace  14.5
 Victor Cruz  14.1
 Steve Smith  13.1
 Jeremy Maclin  12.9
 Laurent Robinson  12.8
 DeSean Jackson  12.3
 Wes Welker  11.9
 Andre Johnson  11.8
 Michael Jenkins  11.4
 Roddy White  11
 Danario Alexander  10.9
 Greg Jennings  10.7
 A.J. Green  10.3
 Santonio Holmes  9.5
 Plaxico Burress  8.9
 Reggie Wayne  8.7
 Julio Jones  8.4
 Stevie Johnson  8.3
 Robert Meachem  8.1
 Sidney Rice  8
 Santana Moss  7.8
 Torrey Smith  7.8
 Jordy Nelson  7.6
 Domenik Hixon  7.6
 Doug Baldwin  7.5
 Darrius Heyward-Bey  7.5
 Devery Henderson  7.5
 Brandon Gibson  7.4
 Anquan Boldin  7.3
 Brandon Marshall  7.2
 Mohamed Massaquoi  7
 Devin Aromashodu  6.8
 Kevin Walter  6.8
 Jason Hill  6.7
 Jason Avant  6.7
 Mike Thomas  6.5
 Hines Ward  6.5
 Jabar Gaffney  6.4
 Preston Parker  6.1
 David Nelson  6
 Joshua Cribbs  6
 Danny Amendola  5.7
 Denarius Moore  5.6
 Lance Moore  5.5
 James Jones  5.4
 Brian Hartline  5
 Mario Manningham  4.9
 Percy Harvin  4.9
 Mike Williams  4.9
 Deion Branch  4.8
 Antonio Brown  4.8
 Arrelious Benn  4.8
 Jerome Simpson  4.6
 Mike Sims-Walker  4.4
 Ben Obomanu  4.3
 Davone Bess  4.2
 Brandon LaFell  4.1
 Titus Young  4
 Nate Burleson  3.9

Week 6 Fantasy Running Back (RB) Projections


 Adrian Peterson  28.5
 Ryan Torain  22.8
 LeSean McCoy  22.1
 Ray Rice  20.5
 Matt Forte  18.9
 Peyton Hillis  17.1
 Ahmad Bradshaw  16.9
 Fred Jackson  16.3
 Maurice Jones-Drew  15.1
 Arian Foster  14.9
 Jahvid Best  14.9
 Brandon Jacobs  14.3
 Felix Jones  13.3
 Shonn Greene  12.8
 Darren McFadden  12.7
 LeGarrette Blount  12.3
 Marshawn Lynch  11.7
 Derrick Ward  11.4
 Tim Hightower  11.3
 Michael Turner  11.1
 Cedric Benson  11.1
 DeAngelo Williams  11.1
 LaDainian Tomlinson  10.5
 Darren Sproles  10.2
 Ben Tate  10.2
 Steven Jackson  9.7
 Carnell Williams  9.5
 Jonathan Dwyer  9.4
 Jonathan Stewart  8.9
 BenJarvus Green-Ellis  8.7
 Daniel Thomas  8.4
 Rashard Mendenhall  7
 Joseph Addai  7
 James Starks  6.8
 Mark Ingram  6.3
 Pierre Thomas  6.1
 Michael Bush  5.9
 Montario Hardesty  5.7
 Roy Helu  5.4
 Earnest Graham  5.3
 Isaac Redman  4.5
 Ryan Grant  4.2
 James Casey  4.1

Week 6 Fantasy Tight End (TE) Projections


 Jason Witten  18
 Jimmy Graham  12.7
 Tony Gonzalez  12.2
 Dustin Keller  10.6
 Owen Daniels  9.5
 Benjamin Watson  8.6
 Jake Ballard  8.2
 Jermichael Finley  7.5
 Greg Olsen  7.3
 Brandon Pettigrew  6.9
 Jermaine Gresham  6.7
 Visanthe Shiancoe  6.7
 Fred Davis  6.6
 Rob Gronkowski  6.6
 Aaron Hernandez  6.3
 Evan Moore  6.3
 Ed Dickson  6.1
 Heath Miller  5.1
 Kellen Winslow  5
 Scott Chandler  4.8
 Dallas Clark  4.4
 Joel Dreessen  4.4
 Kevin Boss  3.7
 Tony Scheffler  3.5
 Jeremy Shockey  3.4
 Lance Kendricks  3.2
 Clay Harbor  3.2
 Zach Miller  3.2
 Kyle Rudolph  2.8
 Anthony Fasano  2.4
 Dennis Pitta  2.3
 Marcedes Lewis  2.3

 Week 6 Fantasy Kicker (K) Projections

 Sebastian Janikowski 15.8
 Robbie Gould 13.6
 Stephen Gostkowski 12.1
 Dan Carpenter 10.3
 John Kasay 10.2
 Ryan Longwell 9.5
 Nick Folk 9.3
 Mike Nugent 9.1
 Rian Lindell 9.1
 Dan Bailey 8.9
 Jason Hanson 8.8
 Mason Crosby 8.6
 Matt Bryant 8.4
 Billy Cundiff 8
 Steven Hauschka 7.7
 Olindo Mare 7.2
 Neil Rackers 6.8
 Alex Henery 6.8
 Phil Dawson 6.5
 Adam Vinatieri 6.3
 Connor Barth 6.2
 Shaun Suisham 4.6
 Josh Scobee 4.5
 Josh Brown 4.1
 Graham Gano 3.8
 Lawrence Tynes 2.8

Week 6 Fantasy Defense (DEF) Projections

Green Bay Packers 20.9
Washington Redskins 15.3
Pittsburgh Steelers 13.3
Minnesota Vikings 11.2
New York Jets 9.4
Cincinnati Bengals 9.2
Baltimore Ravens 8.4
New England Patriots 7.7
Jacksonville Jaguars 6.3
New Orleans Saints 6
Buffalo Bills 5.9
Oakland Raiders 5.7
Houston Texans 5.4
Detroit Lions 5.3
Philadelphia Eagles 4.6
Indianapolis Colts 4.5
Chicago Bears 3.8
Atlanta Falcons 3.7
Miami Dolphins 2.7
Carolina Panthers 2.7
Cleveland Browns 2.7
Seattle Seahawks 1.1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.1
Dallas Cowboys -0.1
St. Louis Rams -0.1
New York Giants -1.2







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