Methodology
1) Only statistics from the 2011 NFL season are used. Player and team fantasy performance from previous years is completely ignored. Season to season changes in the composition of the NFL teams is too great, making last years performance irrelevant to this years projections.
2) Each fantasy football statistical category that is scored at Fantasy Sports Live is projected individually. For a fantasy football player's projection, I sum each scored statistical category projection multiplied by the fantasy point scoring for that category at FSL. This leads to vastly more accurate projections. For example, a TE that scores a lot of TDs, but does not get many yards is better matched-up against defenses that give up a lot of TDs and few receiving yards. Simply taking a players average fantasy points in total, against a defenses fantasy strength in total does not reveal all the important details of the match-up.
3) I start with the averages at each scored statistical category for each player, and then adjust them based on strength of schedule for each category based on the defenses faced so far this year.
4) To further improve accuracy, I also adjust defensive strength at each statistical category based on the offensive strength of schedule for the defense. This extra step is not taken by most projections, and is very important based on the limited 16 game NFL schedule. At about the 20 game point this adjustment is not really necessary, but you never get to that point during the NFL season. For example the top defense in the league, may actually be the best, or may be statistically the best based on facing weak offenses so far this year.
5) Making the adjustments to average performance in (3) and (4) above gets you to the players underlying strength at each statistical category. This is the statistics that the player would put up on average, long-term against a perfectly average defensive match-up.
6) The players underlying statistical strength is then adjusted maced on the strength of this weeks match-up. The defensive strength of the match-up is adjusted for offensive schedule strength as in (4) above. I multiply the modified defensive strength at each statistical category, by the underlying strength of the player at each statistical category to get a projection at each category which is used to project the players total fantasy points for their next game.
Notes
1) No adjustments are made for home/away, or for player injuries. Home players tend to score higher than away players, and healthy players tend to score higher than injured players. When building a fantasy football team based on these projections, and facing a difficult decision, you should tend to choose the player playing at home, and players with out injuries when ever possible. You should also completely avoid players who are listed as questionable, doubtful, Out, or IR in the Fantasy Sports Live draft screen.
2) Projections are most accurate for players with the most games played. Projections for players with few games played can be inaccurate. For example this week there are very high projection for Mile Austin and Dez Bryant at WR. This is because they had played a limited number of games and did very well in them. Be aware that these projections are probably not very accurate due to the small sample size.
3) All projections are generated automatically, and are not adjusted through human intervention. Even if some of them do not look right, I leave them in place.
4) These projections are valid at Fantasy Sports Live only, based on our unique scoring system. The way we score kickers and defenses is significantly different than elsewhere. There are also small differences at the other positions.
Week 6 Fantasy Quarterback (QB) Projections
| Tony Romo 43.7 |
| Eli Manning 35.5 |
| Mark Sanchez 28.3 |
| Drew Brees 26.7 |
| Aaron Rodgers 26 |
| Cam Newton 25.3 |
| Michael Vick 24.5 |
| Matthew Stafford 24.4 |
| Donovan McNabb 24.3 |
| Colt McCoy 22.3 |
| Matt Schaub 21.8 |
| Matt Ryan 18.7 |
| Ben Roethlisberger 18.5 |
| Curtis Painter 17.6 |
| Joe Flacco 17.1 |
| Josh Freeman 16.7 |
| Jon Kitna 16.6 |
| Sam Bradford 15.1 |
| Tarvaris Jackson 15.1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick 14.9 |
| Andy Dalton 14.2 |
| Tom Brady 14 |
| Jason Campbell 13.9 |
| Rex Grossman 12.8 |
Week 6 Fantasy Wide Receiver (WR) Projections
| Miles Austin 48.3 |
| Dez Bryant 24 |
| Calvin Johnson 19.2 |
| Hakeem Nicks 15.1 |
| Pierre Garcon 15.1 |
| Mike Wallace 14.5 |
| Victor Cruz 14.1 |
| Steve Smith 13.1 |
| Jeremy Maclin 12.9 |
| Laurent Robinson 12.8 |
| DeSean Jackson 12.3 |
| Wes Welker 11.9 |
| Andre Johnson 11.8 |
| Michael Jenkins 11.4 |
| Roddy White 11 |
| Danario Alexander 10.9 |
| Greg Jennings 10.7 |
| A.J. Green 10.3 |
| Santonio Holmes 9.5 |
| Plaxico Burress 8.9 |
| Reggie Wayne 8.7 |
| Julio Jones 8.4 |
| Stevie Johnson 8.3 |
| Robert Meachem 8.1 |
| Sidney Rice 8 |
| Santana Moss 7.8 |
| Torrey Smith 7.8 |
| Jordy Nelson 7.6 |
| Domenik Hixon 7.6 |
| Doug Baldwin 7.5 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey 7.5 |
| Devery Henderson 7.5 |
| Brandon Gibson 7.4 |
| Anquan Boldin 7.3 |
| Brandon Marshall 7.2 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi 7 |
| Devin Aromashodu 6.8 |
| Kevin Walter 6.8 |
| Jason Hill 6.7 |
| Jason Avant 6.7 |
| Mike Thomas 6.5 |
| Hines Ward 6.5 |
| Jabar Gaffney 6.4 |
| Preston Parker 6.1 |
| David Nelson 6 |
| Joshua Cribbs 6 |
| Danny Amendola 5.7 |
| Denarius Moore 5.6 |
| Lance Moore 5.5 |
| James Jones 5.4 |
| Brian Hartline 5 |
| Mario Manningham 4.9 |
| Percy Harvin 4.9 |
| Mike Williams 4.9 |
| Deion Branch 4.8 |
| Antonio Brown 4.8 |
| Arrelious Benn 4.8 |
| Jerome Simpson 4.6 |
| Mike Sims-Walker 4.4 |
| Ben Obomanu 4.3 |
| Davone Bess 4.2 |
| Brandon LaFell 4.1 |
| Titus Young 4 |
| Nate Burleson 3.9 |
Week 6 Fantasy Running Back (RB) Projections
| Adrian Peterson 28.5 |
| Ryan Torain 22.8 |
| LeSean McCoy 22.1 |
| Ray Rice 20.5 |
| Matt Forte 18.9 |
| Peyton Hillis 17.1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw 16.9 |
| Fred Jackson 16.3 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew 15.1 |
| Arian Foster 14.9 |
| Jahvid Best 14.9 |
| Brandon Jacobs 14.3 |
| Felix Jones 13.3 |
| Shonn Greene 12.8 |
| Darren McFadden 12.7 |
| LeGarrette Blount 12.3 |
| Marshawn Lynch 11.7 |
| Derrick Ward 11.4 |
| Tim Hightower 11.3 |
| Michael Turner 11.1 |
| Cedric Benson 11.1 |
| DeAngelo Williams 11.1 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson 10.5 |
| Darren Sproles 10.2 |
| Ben Tate 10.2 |
| Steven Jackson 9.7 |
| Carnell Williams 9.5 |
| Jonathan Dwyer 9.4 |
| Jonathan Stewart 8.9 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis 8.7 |
| Daniel Thomas 8.4 |
| Rashard Mendenhall 7 |
| Joseph Addai 7 |
| James Starks 6.8 |
| Mark Ingram 6.3 |
| Pierre Thomas 6.1 |
| Michael Bush 5.9 |
| Montario Hardesty 5.7 |
| Roy Helu 5.4 |
| Earnest Graham 5.3 |
| Isaac Redman 4.5 |
| Ryan Grant 4.2 |
| James Casey 4.1 |
Week 6 Fantasy Tight End (TE) Projections
| Jason Witten 18 |
| Jimmy Graham 12.7 |
| Tony Gonzalez 12.2 |
| Dustin Keller 10.6 |
| Owen Daniels 9.5 |
| Benjamin Watson 8.6 |
| Jake Ballard 8.2 |
| Jermichael Finley 7.5 |
| Greg Olsen 7.3 |
| Brandon Pettigrew 6.9 |
| Jermaine Gresham 6.7 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe 6.7 |
| Fred Davis 6.6 |
| Rob Gronkowski 6.6 |
| Aaron Hernandez 6.3 |
| Evan Moore 6.3 |
| Ed Dickson 6.1 |
| Heath Miller 5.1 |
| Kellen Winslow 5 |
| Scott Chandler 4.8 |
| Dallas Clark 4.4 |
| Joel Dreessen 4.4 |
| Kevin Boss 3.7 |
| Tony Scheffler 3.5 |
| Jeremy Shockey 3.4 |
| Lance Kendricks 3.2 |
| Clay Harbor 3.2 |
| Zach Miller 3.2 |
| Kyle Rudolph 2.8 |
| Anthony Fasano 2.4 |
| Dennis Pitta 2.3 |
| Marcedes Lewis 2.3 |
Week 6 Fantasy Kicker (K) Projections
| Sebastian Janikowski 15.8 |
| Robbie Gould 13.6 |
| Stephen Gostkowski 12.1 |
| Dan Carpenter 10.3 |
| John Kasay 10.2 |
| Ryan Longwell 9.5 |
| Nick Folk 9.3 |
| Mike Nugent 9.1 |
| Rian Lindell 9.1 |
| Dan Bailey 8.9 |
| Jason Hanson 8.8 |
| Mason Crosby 8.6 |
| Matt Bryant 8.4 |
| Billy Cundiff 8 |
| Steven Hauschka 7.7 |
| Olindo Mare 7.2 |
| Neil Rackers 6.8 |
| Alex Henery 6.8 |
| Phil Dawson 6.5 |
| Adam Vinatieri 6.3 |
| Connor Barth 6.2 |
| Shaun Suisham 4.6 |
| Josh Scobee 4.5 |
| Josh Brown 4.1 |
| Graham Gano 3.8 |
| Lawrence Tynes 2.8 |
Week 6 Fantasy Defense (DEF) Projections
| Green Bay Packers 20.9 |
| Washington Redskins 15.3 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers 13.3 |
| Minnesota Vikings 11.2 |
| New York Jets 9.4 |
| Cincinnati Bengals 9.2 |
| Baltimore Ravens 8.4 |
| New England Patriots 7.7 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 6.3 |
| New Orleans Saints 6 |
| Buffalo Bills 5.9 |
| Oakland Raiders 5.7 |
| Houston Texans 5.4 |
| Detroit Lions 5.3 |
| Philadelphia Eagles 4.6 |
| Indianapolis Colts 4.5 |
| Chicago Bears 3.8 |
| Atlanta Falcons 3.7 |
| Miami Dolphins 2.7 |
| Carolina Panthers 2.7 |
| Cleveland Browns 2.7 |
| Seattle Seahawks 1.1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.1 |
| Dallas Cowboys -0.1 |
| St. Louis Rams -0.1 |
| New York Giants -1.2 |
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